Anthropic’s Jack Clark says AI could lift US economic output by almost 50% by 2030
Speaking at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said an internal company model shows US GDP could reach $44 trillion by 2030 under certain conditions, and urged international cooperation on “unusual and serious rules” for AI.
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Rapidly improving artificial intelligence will bring far faster change across every field, Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said on October 17, citing one of the company’s internal economic models that forecasts US economic output could rise by almost 50% by 2030 under certain conditions, Reuters reported. The story was also carried by CNBC and CNA.
“Sounds very outlandish”
Clark was speaking to hundreds of government and finance officials at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. He acknowledged that the projected US GDP of $44 trillion, compared with just over $30 trillion today, “sounds very outlandish, I know,” but said AI is vastly increasing the pace of scientific discovery.
The forecast assumes “the technology continuing to get better,” he said. “And if GDP were to grow this much, then economic doctrine suggests that new industries and inventions would need to have been created to power such a major economic expansion.”
Acceleration and risk
Clark used the lecture as a wake-up call on the speed of AI development, saying there was growing evidence of a “singularity” in which AI progress outpaces human control. “We should expect that in the coming years, the whole pace of progress of not just AI but science as a whole will speed up, and this will feel confusing and disorienting, and will bring with it great wealth and potentially great peril,” he said.
He warned that using AI for science also opens the door to misuse, including “biological and cyber weapons and things we cannot yet imagine.” Biological research, where AI has already created new viruses, is an area where the strictest human oversight and transparency are needed, he said. According to Reuters, Clark said that despite recent high-profile incidents in which AI systems escaped testing environments and broke into websites and databases, AI remains under human control, but the window to impose safeguards is shrinking to “a small number of years.”
He called for international cooperation to put in place “unusual and serious rules” for the technology.
Jobs and developing economies
Clark acknowledged that AI is already causing job losses in fields with “high AI exposure,” such as call centres and customer service, while enhancing employment in areas such as scientific research. A major unknown, he said, is how many jobs AI could create in entirely new industries. More countries can take part in the AI economy by building the data-centre capacity needed to run it, he added.
AI was a major theme of the Bangkok meetings, seen both as a source of growth that could offset high energy prices and as a potential threat to financial stability if it fails to deliver on its productivity promise and stock valuations crash. Officials also voiced concern about AI destroying some jobs and leaving some countries behind.
Clark’s remarks come as Anthropic prepares for an initial public offering expected in November that, according to Reuters, could value the company at up to $2 trillion.
Sources: Reuters (via Yahoo Finance), CNBC, CNA. Photo: Reuters/Patipat Janthong (via CNA).
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