Nuclear war, malicious AI pose extinction risk by 2100 among 17 health threats: Lancet

Nuclear war and the malicious use of artificial intelligence top a list of 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years, and both carry a low but real risk of human extinction by 2100, a new global assessment says.

The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health said all the threats interact and must be addressed together. It stressed there is “a realistic route to act” on each.

“Decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation,” said Christopher Murray, commission co-chair and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

How threats were ranked

The commission modeled how many years in good health might be lost to sickness, disability or early death from each threat, based on current trajectories. The measure is known as disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs. A threat also had to have potential solutions to make the list.

Extinction-level risks

“Malicious use of AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with nuclear famine carry risks of extinction in the next 75 years,” the report said. Their likelihood remains low, it added. A nuclear conflict could inject enough particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and cause famine, while AI could be used to create biological weapons.

An accompanying Lancet editorial warned that the scale of harm, should the threats be realized, “would inflict an apocalypse on humanity.”

The wider list

Other risks that could cause more than 1 billion cumulative DALYs, deemed “major catastrophic threats,” include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional conflict, declining overseas aid, obesity, poor mental health and naturally occurring pandemics.

In higher-income regions, noncommunicable diseases such as obesity and poor mental health dominated, while in lower-income regions low educational attainment was among the drivers.

Aid cuts and climate

Many major donors, including the U.S. and U.K., have announced large cuts to aid spending over the past year. A collapse of, or steep reduction in, international health aid could cause up to 1.5 billion DALYs before 2100, the commission found, nearly 70% of them in sub-Saharan Africa, which also bears the brunt of child malnutrition.

On climate, the report modeled best and worst cases. Limiting global heating to about 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.8 degrees Celsius) rather than letting it reach 7.9 degrees Fahrenheit (4.4 degrees Celsius) could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost.

A call to act early

Ibrahim Abubakar, a commission member and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London, said the goal was not to scare people. Policymakers should understand the threats they face and “the magnitude by which, if you act, you can actually make a difference,” he said.

The 35-member commission began its work three years ago expecting three big threats: conflict, climate and pandemics. “There’s a much larger number of threats that we need to worry about,” Murray said, urging governments to dedicate money and staff to anticipation, prevention and preparation.

The authors urged leaders to address risks before they escalate into crises, including through investment in technological innovation and stronger health systems. The findings were to be shared Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin, and the assessment will be updated annually.