Ranked: Inflation vs. Consumer Confidence by Country

Inflation and Consumer Confidence Across Major Economies

Key Takeaways

• Türkiye and Argentina are projected to average inflation above 30% in 2026, far exceeding the other economies shown.

• The U.S. has the highest projected inflation in the G7 at 3.6%, ahead of the UK at 3.1%.

• India’s 66.9 consumer confidence score leads all 17 economies shown.

Inflation is beginning to rise again across many of the world’s largest economies after easing from the highs of recent years.

The comparison with consumer confidence reveals a more complicated picture. Some countries with relatively low inflation still report weak consumer sentiment, while several emerging economies rank considerably higher on confidence.

Using inflation projections from the OECD and consumer confidence data from Ipsos, this graphic compares price pressures and consumer sentiment across 17 major economies.

How Inflation and Consumer Confidence Compare

The table below ranks 17 major economies by projected 2026 inflation:

CountryAnnual Avg. Inflation (2026P)Consumer Confidence Index (Sep 2026)

Türkiye31.5%35.3

Argentina30.8%37.8

Brazil5.1%52.2

India4.7%66.9

Australia4.5%48.5

Mexico4.1%50.8

South Africa4.1%50.3

Spain3.7%46.8

U.S.3.6%50.5

Indonesia3.3%52.9

UK3.1%48.2

Italy3.0%43.0

South Korea3.0%44.3

Germany2.9%41.4

Canada2.8%47.3

France2.5%40.6

Japan1.8%39.4

Excluding Türkiye and Argentina, projected inflation across the countries shown ranges from 1.8% in Japan to 5.1% in Brazil. Among G7 economies, the U.S. ranks highest at 3.6%, followed by the UK at 3.1%.

Consumer confidence follows a different pattern. India leads at 66.9, while Germany, France, Italy, South Korea, and Japan all score below 45.

Japan highlights the disconnect. Despite having the lowest projected inflation rate in the ranking, its confidence score is just 39.4. Consumer sentiment reflects a broader economic picture, including wages, employment, and expectations for the economy.

Why the Inflation Outlook Is Shifting Again

The backdrop to these rankings is changing quickly as disruptions in the Middle East push energy prices higher. Global observed oil inventories fell by 507 million barrels between February and August, reducing the buffer available to absorb further supply disruptions.

More than half of G20 economies currently have inflation above their central bank targets. The OECD projects G20 inflation to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026 before easing to 3.6% in 2027.

That leaves countries with different capacities to absorb another period of higher prices. Real wages in Japan, South Africa, and Italy remain at or below pre-pandemic levels, potentially making renewed increases in essential costs more difficult for households to absorb.

How persistent the inflation rebound becomes will depend heavily on energy markets and the duration of current supply disruptions.

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To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the most expensive U.S. states for utilities.