US, allies can implement five ways to hold China’s aircraft carrier fleet at risk: Report

China has spent years building a force designed to keep U.S. aircraft carriers at risk in the western Pacific. A new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) argues that the United States and its allies could respond by applying a similar strategy to China’s growing carrier fleet.

The analysis, titled “Flip the Script,” was published by CSIS in August. It proposes making Chinese aircraft carriers the focus of a distributed network of U.S. and allied submarines, missiles, aircraft, unmanned systems, and intelligence assets.

Turning China’s anti-carrier strategy around

China has developed a combination of submarines, ballistic and cruise missiles, aircraft, sensors, and other systems intended to threaten U.S. carrier strike groups operating near China. CSIS argues that Chinese carriers could face many of the same challenges if the United States and its Pacific allies concentrated their capabilities against them.

The report identifies five broad areas for doing so. The first is the undersea domain. U.S. nuclear-powered attack submarines could be joined by conventionally powered submarines from allies including Australia, Japan, and South Korea, creating what CSIS describes as a continuous threat to Chinese carrier groups.

Land-based anti-ship missiles would provide another layer. From positions stretching from Japan to the Philippines, these weapons could threaten Chinese ships approaching key waterways while allied intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems provide targeting information.

The strategy would also employ air-launched anti-ship missiles supported by satellite surveillance, alongside electronic and cyber operations intended to disrupt Chinese command and communications networks. Unmanned surface vessels could add another layer of pressure around Chinese ports and naval facilities.

Together, the systems are intended to make operating large-deck carriers near Taiwan, in the South China Sea, or beyond China’s first island chain increasingly difficult and costly.

A more distributed US Navy

The proposal would also require changes to how the U.S. Navy is structured. CSIS argues that the United States needs more unmanned underwater systems, additional allied bases for naval drones, and larger stocks of weapons such as torpedoes. It also proposes a fleet with 300 manned and 300 unmanned vessels, compared with current planning for roughly 350 manned vessels and 150 unmanned surface and underwater systems.

The analysis also calls for the U.S. Army and Marine Corps to contribute land-based anti-ship missile units and for greater allied co-production of precision weapons.

The underlying idea is bigger than targeting carriers alone. By dispersing weapons across submarines, aircraft, land forces, unmanned systems, and allied bases, the United States could create multiple threats that China would have to account for simultaneously.

The proposal comes as China’s carrier force continues to expand. China currently operates three aircraft carriers, while a 2025 Pentagon assessment cited by Defense News projected that the People’s Liberation Army Navy could build six additional carriers by 2035.

CSIS’s argument is that China’s growing carrier fleet should not be viewed solely as a threat to U.S. naval power. The carriers themselves could become high-value targets, particularly because they are expensive and difficult to replace.

The report therefore reframes the carrier problem. Instead of concentrating exclusively on protecting U.S. carriers from China’s anti-access systems, Washington and its allies could seek to create a comparable threat environment around China’s own fleet.

Source: https://interestingengineering.com/military/us-report-china-aircraft-carrier-fleet